可变模糊集理论评价水库运行管理

Evaluation of reservoir operation management based on variable fuzzy set theory

  • 摘要: 为科学评价水库运行管理现代化水平,结合当前水库运行管理现代化建设的迫切需求和构建现代化水库运行管理矩阵的举措要求,从“四全”管理、“四制(治)”体系、“四预”措施和“四管”工作4个方面,构建了由25项指标组成的水库运行管理现代化评价指标体系;采用序关系法和熵值法相结合的方式确定指标权重,建立了基于可变模糊集理论的评价模型;以江苏省石梁河水库为例,评价其运行管理现代化水平。结果表明,基于可变模糊集理论构建的模型可有效评价水库运行管理现代化水平,评价结果符合实际情况;石梁河水库运行管理现代化水平为良好,并有向优秀转变的趋势,说明石梁河水库运行管理现代化水平较高,但在信息共享、水生态环境保护、人力资源科技与结构化水平等方面仍有待提升。

     

    Abstract: To scientifically evaluate the modernization level of reservoir operation management, considering the urgent demand for modernized reservoir operation management and the need to construct a modernization matrix, an evaluation index system consisting of 25 indicators was developed. The system was structured around four key aspects: "Four-Complete" management, "Four-System (Treatment)" framework, "Four-Forecast" measures, and "Four-Management" tasks. A combination of the rank relation method and the entropy weight method was employed to determine the indicator weights, and an evaluation model based on variable fuzzy set theory was established. Taking Shilianghe Reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, its operation management modernization level was assessed. The results demonstrate that the model based on variable fuzzy set theory effectively evaluates the modernization level of reservoir operation management, and the evaluation results align with actual conditions. The modernization level of Shilianghe Reservoir's operation management is rated as "Good," with a tendency to improve toward "Excellent," indicating a relatively high modernization level. However, there is still room for improvement in aspects such as information sharing, water ecological environment protection, and the technological and structural level of human resources.

     

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