超长期服役港口工程结构的极值波高研究

Study on extreme wave heights of harbor engineering structures with extended service lives

  • 摘要: 人类活动和气候变化导致的波浪极值高度非平稳性是超长期海水港口结构设计考虑的重要问题。收集了中国南方某海域的波浪数据,将极值波高视作非平稳随机过程,分析得到年最大有效波高的概率分布和设计使用年限内有效波高的概率分布;确定了不同重现期的波浪高度特征值;得到了设计使用年限内最大波高的概率分布。结果表明:中国南方某海域的有效波高年最大值有随时间增大的趋势,其截口分布为极值I型分布;以现行港工设计规范采用的按平稳过程考虑的重现期50年的有效波高特征值为基准,有效波高按非平稳随机过程考虑时50、100、150和200年重现期的波高特征值调整系数分别为1.03、1.14、1.22和1.28;不同设计使用年限内的最大波浪高度近似服从极值I型分布。该结果可为更新设计规范、优化风险评估及适应气候变化提供科学依据,为气候变化背景下海洋工程的安全性和可持续性研究提供支持。

     

    Abstract: The non-stationary characteristics of extreme wave heights due to human activities and climate change are important issues for harbor engineering structures with extended design service lives. In this paper, wave data from a southern coastal area of China were collected. The extreme wave heights were treated as a non-stationary stochastic process. On this basis, the probability distributions of annual maximum significant wave heights and maximum significant wave heights during the design service life were derived; the characteristic values of wave heights for various return periods were determined; and the maximum wave heights during the design service life were obtained. The results indicate that the annual maximum significant wave heights in a southern coastal region of China have exhibited a discernible upward trend over time, and they follow the type I extreme distribution at any certain time. Taking the characteristic value of significant wave height for the 50-year return period suggested by the current harbor engineering standards, which considers wave heights as a stationary process, as the reference, the adjustment factors of the characteristic values of significant wave heights, considering wave heights as non-stationary stochastic processes, are 1.03, 1.14, 1.22, and 1.28 for the 50-, 100-, 150-, and 200-year return periods, respectively. Moreover, the maximum wave heights for different design service lives can be approximated by the type I extreme distribution. The conclusions provide a scientific basis for updating design standards, optimizing risk assessment, and adapting to climate change while offering support for the safety and sustainability of marine engineering in the context of climate change.

     

/

返回文章
返回