基于LightGBM模型的热带气旋最大风速订正研究

Study on the adjustment of maximum sustained wind speed based on the LightGBM Model

  • 摘要: 热带气旋最大风速是评估台风灾害影响的重要指标。由于观测技术限制和数据整编方式差异,1970年代以前的热带气旋最大风速数据存在明显偏大的现象。采用经验公式法和LightGBM机器学习模型对最大风速进行了订正。结果表明:经验公式法对风速的订正效果整体较好,但当风速小于20 m/s或大于52 m/s时误差会迅速增大;LightGBM模型的风速订正结果表现出更高的准确性和稳定性,尤其适用于高/低风速情景;相比于公式法和LightGBM模型,复合法在风速订正精度上表现更优,其均方根误差相较于上述两种方法分别降低了24.2%和7.1%。本研究提出的订正方法能够显著提高早期热带气旋最大风速数据精度,为台风灾害评估、风暴潮预报预警和海岸带防灾减灾政策制定等提供可靠的数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: The tropical cyclone (TC) maximum sustained wind speed is an important indicator for assessing the impact of typhoon disasters. Due to limitations in observational technology and differences in data compilation methods, there is a noticeable overestimation in the maximum sustained wind speed data of TC records before the 1970s. This study employed an improved empirical formula method and the LightGBM machine learning model to correct the maximum sustained wind speeds. The results showed that the empirical formula method generally performs well in correcting wind speeds, but the correction error increases rapidly when wind speeds are less than 20 m/s or greater than 52 m/s. The wind speed correction results using the LightGBM model demonstrate higher accuracy and stability, especially in high/low wind speed scenarios. The combined method outperformed either the formula method or the LightGBM model alone, reducing root mean square errors by 24.2% and 7.1%, respectively. The combined method proposed in this study can significantly enhance the precision of early TC maximum sustained wind speed data, providing reliable support for disaster assessment, storm surge forecasting, and coastal disaster mitigation policies.

     

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